🛡️ Macro Pulse
“Calm, But Not Clear”
📆 Thursday, July 24, 2025 | ⏰ 13:30 London / 08:30 New York
📦 Status: Labour Solid, Activity Recovers, PMIs Hold — But Core PCE Still Holds the Key
🎯 Executive Summary
Markets remain caught between data resilience and risk repricing tension.
Today’s Initial Jobless Claims beat reinforces a still-healthy labour picture.
Chicago Fed Activity improved — suggesting industrial momentum hasn’t cracked yet.
Yesterday’s PMIs held at 52.9, keeping the soft-landing thread alive.
But volatility remains unnaturally compressed — and Core PCE looms large tomorrow.
⚠️ If PCE misses (prints above 0.3%), expect volatility to spike and yields to lift.
✅ If PCE is tame, risk assets get one more breath of upside — especially in tech and cyclicals.
Markets continue to price a soft-landing glide — but cracks are appearing.
The SPX has coiled just above the 6,320 level, while NDX struggles for leadership.
Durable Goods disappointed, but PMIs held, and positioning remains sticky.
This isn’t breakout euphoria — it’s measured conviction with event risk ahead.
Traders must now weigh the compression vs catalyst balance heading into Friday.
🔍 Market Snapshot (As of 09:00 BST / 04:00 EDT)
| Asset | Price | Δ % Move | Tactical Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 6,332.1 | +0.27% | Holding above breakout — but fragile |
| NDX | 23,150.8 | +0.13% | Still lagging → tech divergence grows |
| BTC | 117,050.4 | -0.64% | Fading from high — risk off in crypto |
| GOLD | 3,358.2 | +0.08% | Flat tone → no clear bid |
| DXY | 98.68 | +0.22% | Dollar regaining short-term strength |
| 10Y | 4.432% | +0.38% | Yield grind continues — no relief yet |
| VIX | 15.89 | -2.34% | Compression continues — breakout risk |
| CRUDE | 66.68 | -0.29% | Rangebound tone persists |
🔍 Macro Flow Recap — Week So Far (Jul 22–24)
| 📅 Date | 🧪 Data Point | 🎯 Outcome | 📈 Market Reaction | ✅ Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing –20 | ❌ Miss | Sector pause, industrials soft | ⚠️ Disappointment |
| Jul 23 | Existing Home Sales MoM –2.7% | ❌ Miss | Housing weakness, yield bid paused | ❌ Weak Signal |
| Jul 24 | Chicago Fed Nat’l Index –0.10 | ✅ Beat | Broad activity improving | 🟢 Supportive |
| Jul 24 | Initial Jobless Claims 217K | ✅ Beat | Labour firm, soft-landing intact | 🎯 Positive Signal |
| Jul 24 | S&P Flash PMIs (Composite 52.9) | ✅ Inline | Bonds steady, cyclicals hold | 🎯 Stable |
| Jul 24 | Durable Goods Orders –9.0% | ❌ Miss | Industrial tone slips, RTY fades | ❌ Bearish Tilt |
📌 Summary:
Growth signals mixed → PMIs & labour helping limit the downside
Housing and industrials remain weak, adding pressure under the surface
Bond yields sticky, volatility still compressed
All eyes now on Core PCE & Confidence data tomorrow
🔄 This Week’s Macro Shifts – Week 4 (Jul 21–26)
❌ Durable Goods Drop –9.0%
→ Largest monthly drop since early 2024
→ Market read: Industrial cracks visible, especially in midcaps
🎯 PMIs Hold at 52.9
→ Keeps the “resilience” theme alive
→ Tech & discretionary sectors stable but lacking leadership
⚖️ VIX Remains Compressed
→ Traders are holding breath ahead of Core PCE Friday
→ Implied risk remains low, despite deterioration in some areas
📈 Live Setup Risk – Jul 24–26
| 🧪 Data / Event | Forecast | ✅ If Met | ❌ If Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE MoM (Jul 25) | +0.2–0.3% | VIX stays suppressed, SPX/NDX bid | Spike >0.3% = risk-off tone |
| Consumer Confidence | 67.5 | Tech/discretionary gain support | Miss = volatility awakens early |
| JOLTs Preview (Jul 26) | Flat jobs | Fed narrative intact | Miss = USD lift, yield jump |
🧠 Tactical View:
If PCE comes in soft → risk-on rotation may resume
If PCE is hot or confidence crumbles, expect rate repricing + volatility surge
Core PCE is the critical pin for this week’s directional break
💬 Fed Watch – July Recap
| Speaker / Release | Message | Tone |
|---|---|---|
| Powell (Jul 3) | “We’re on the right track.” | 🟡 Neutral |
| Waller (Jul 12) | “We’re not quite there yet.” | 🔺 Slightly Hawkish |
| FOMC Minutes (Jul 17) | “Disinflation trends holding.” | 🟢 Dovish Lean |
🎯 Outlook: No July rate move expected — but September is wide open
→ Tomorrow’s PCE and next week’s JOLTs will shape that path
📊 Titan Economic Pulse Matrix — July Week 1–5
| Week | Inflation | Growth | Labour | Fed | Market Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 🟠 | 🟠 | 🔺 | 🟡 | ⚖️ |
| Week 2 | 🔻 | 🟢 | 🟢 | 🟡 | 🟢 |
| Week 3 | 🔻 | 🟢 | 🟢 | 🟢 | ✅ |
| Week 4 | 🟠 | ⚖️ | ⚖️ | 🟢 | 🟢 |
| Week 5 | ⏳ | ⏳ | ⏳ | 🔺 | 🔺 |
📈 Live Setup Risk — Jul 24–26
| 🧪 Data / Event | Forecast | ✅ If Met | ❌ If Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE MoM (Jul 25) | +0.2–0.3% | VIX compresses further → SPX, NDX ↑ | Above 0.3% = yield spike → risk reversal |
| Consumer Confidence | 67.5 | Support for discretionary + tech | Weak = VIX awakens, puts on bid |
| JOLTs Preview (Jul 26) | Flat jobs | Market shrugs → soft landing intact | Weak = Fed tone recalibrated, USD lifts |
📌 Tactical note:
• If PCE prints above 0.3%, expect a yield-led shakeout.
• If PCE is tame but confidence drops, volatility likely reawakens early.
• If both are mild → continuation possible, but led by defensives.
🔎 Titan Economic Pulse Matrix — July Week 1–5
| Week | Inflation | Growth | Labour | Fed | Market Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 🟠 | 🟠 | 🔺 | 🟡 | ⚖️ |
| Week 2 | 🔻 | 🟢 | 🟢 | 🟡 | 🟢 |
| Week 3 | 🔻 | 🟢 | 🟢 | 🟢 | ✅ |
| Week 4 | 🟠 | ⚖️ | ⚖️ | 🟢 | 🟢 |
| Week 5 | ⏳ | ⏳ | ⏳ | 🔺 | 🔺 |
🧠 Signal drift is showing waning growth strength, labour cooling, and Fed optionality back on the table.
Tomorrow’s Core PCE will either confirm the fade or trigger a re-rating.
💬 Fed Watch – July Recap
| Speaker/Release | Tone | Message |
|---|---|---|
| Powell (Jul 3) | 🟡 Neutral | “We’re on the right track.” |
| Waller (Jul 12) | 🔺 Slightly Hawkish | “We’re not quite there yet.” |
| FOMC Minutes (Jul 17) | 🟢 Dovish Lean | “Disinflation trends holding.” |
🎯 No July rate change expected — but September is now a coin toss.
Markets will use tomorrow’s PCE + next week’s JOLTs/FOMC to reprice that probability.
📈 Triple Delta Flow Snapshot – Jul 23 → Jul 24
| Ticker | % Move | Insight |
|---|---|---|
| BTCUSD | –0.64% | Crypto de-risking continues |
| NDX | +0.13% | Still no leadership from tech |
| SPX | +0.27% | Holding above 6,320 but no impulse |
| RTY | –0.23% | Faded again post Durable Goods miss |
| VIX | –2.34% | Compression holding — breakout looms |
| GOLD | +0.08% | Flat — no clear hedge bid |
| CRUDE | –0.29% | Range persists — energy uninspired |
| DXY | +0.22% | Dollar regains footing into data risk |
💡 Takeaway:
Conviction remains localised and cautious.
Unless PCE confirms disinflation, we remain in a coiled volatility state.
📌 Closing Thoughts
This is the last calm session before Friday’s Core PCE + Confidence gauntlet.
SPX and NDX remain pinned, but under the hood, industrial weakness and housing softness continue.
Volatility has yet to trigger — but the fuse is lit.
This week has revealed something critical:
Markets don’t believe in a breakdown — but they’re not pricing a breakout either.
The bias remains soft-landing for now — but conviction has waned.
The Fed will not lead the next move. The data must.
All eyes on Friday’s Core PCE.
→ Inline = final leg higher
→ Hot = volatility window opens
Stay reactive. Stay prepared. The break is coming.
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
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⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
📉 Macro data as of July 24, 2025 at 09:00 BST
✍️ Analyst: Titan Protect | PS01 Macro Pulse Team
⚠️ Educational content only. Not financial advice.
