MACRO PULSE
Soft Data, Stalled Reactions — Risk Waits for Retail Clarity
Thursday, July 17, 2025 | 
08:00 London/BST / 03:00 New York/EDT
Status: Vol cooled slightly, but conviction remains cracked. All eyes now on Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and Jobless Claims.
Executive Summary
Markets refused to ignite on soft CPI and PPI. Volatility spiked briefly, then retreated. SPX bounced off 6,240 support but failed to break 6,280 again. Disinflation is visible — but without real retail strength, it’s not enough.
Today brings retail clarity, jobless trends, and Philly Fed tone.
Macro is cooling. Mood is stretched. But positioning is cautious.
It’s not greed. It’s hesitation disguised as hope.
Recap: Wednesday’s Soft Prints (Jul 16)
| Time ET | Data | Actual | Forecast | Prev | Tactical Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PPI MoM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Soft — no follow-through |
| 08:30 | Core PPI MoM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | Lower trend confirmed |
| 08:30 | Core PPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | Cooling continues |
| 09:15 | Industrial Production | +0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | Positive but modest |
| 10:30 | Crude Inventories | –3.85M | –0.9M | +7.07M | Supply drop confirmed |
| 14:00 | Beige Book | — | — | — | Neutral tone, no catalyst |
| 18:30 | Fed Williams | — | — | — | Reaffirmed “data-dependent” stance |
Market takeaway: This was a textbook soft data day — and SPX still couldn’t hold a breakout. Volatility jumped, then cooled. That’s not strength. That’s unease.
Market Snapshot: Thursday AM (vs Wednesday Close)
| Asset | Last Price | Δ% (24h) | Tactical Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 6,263.70 | +0.32% | Held 6,240, approaching ceiling again |
| NDX | 22,980.3 | +0.28% | Modest bounce — leadership still fragile |
| BTC | 118,286.46 | –0.35% | Losing momentum — still above 117.5K |
| GOLD | 3,335.67 | –0.36% | DXY bounce limits upside |
| SILVER | 37.88 | –0.08% | Strongest structure, slight cool-off |
| CRUDE | 66.41 | –0.31% | Bullish EIA ignored — remains capped |
| DXY | 98.28 | –0.36% | Small fade — compression persists |
| VIX | 17.15 | –1.38% | Back down — surface calm, tension underneath |
| VX1! | 19.20 | –1.67% | Vol term structure normalizing slightly |
What’s Coming Today — Thursday July 17 (08:30–16:30 ET)
| Time ET | Event | Forecast | Prior | Risk Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Retail Sales MoM (JUN) | +0.2% | –0.9% |  If miss = confirms consumption weakness |
| 08:30 | Philly Fed Index | –3 | –4.0 |  Weak tone expected — surprise could lift risk |
| 08:30 | Jobless Claims | 230K | 227K |  Rising claims = recession watch |
| 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 31 | 32 |  Watching for further erosion |
| 12:00 | Mortgage Rates Update | 6.72% est | 6.82% |  Lower rates = marginal tailwind |
| 16:30 | Fed Balance Sheet | — | $6.66T |  Liquidity direction indicator |
Macro Flow Recap (Jul 01–16)
• CPI + PPI cooling confirmed → inflation falling, but not fast enough
• Oil: Massive builds (Jul 9), sharp draw (Jul 16) → demand confusion
• Fed: Barr, Williams = no urgency to cut → narrative is neutral, not dovish
Flow Sentiment Panel
| Asset | Flow Bias | Key Zone | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX |  Neutral |
6,240–6,280 | MIXED — needs retail clarity |
| NDX | Fragile |
22,850–23,050 | Holding but not leading |
| BTC |  Long Bias |
>117.5K | Holding structure — but fading |
| GOLD | Coiled |
>3,330 | Awaiting DXY rollover |
| SILVER | Strongest |
>37.75 | Sentiment still leads |
| CRUDE |  Weak |
<67.00 | EIA bounce ignored |
| DXY | Fade Risk |
<99.00 | Watching yield curve slope |
Trade Playbook
| Type | Setup Insight |
|---|---|
| Scalper | Fade SPX >6,275 into Philly Fed if weak |
| Intraday | BTC long above 119K / Crude fade under 66.00 |
| Swing | Silver >38.00 with DXY fade = strongest tailwind |
| Position | Wait for Retail Sales — risk binary outcome |
Conviction Matrix – Updated
| Pair | Conviction | Setup Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| BTC + DXY |
 High |
Crypto breakout risk-on if BTC >119K |
| SPX + Weak Retail |
Caution |
Risk pullback if SPX <6,240 |
Silver + DXY  |
Strongest |
Cleanest sentiment-flow alignment |
| Crude + EIA Ignored |
Confirmed |
Second leg down opens below 66.00 |
Macro Thesis
“Soft data without upside price reaction isn’t a green light — it’s a warning.”
We are now in a stretch zone. CPI and PPI cooled. Retail sentiment surged. Institutional hedging ticked higher. Yet SPX stalled. Today is the inflection: Retail Sales + Claims = mood test.
Until then: Compression. Waiting. Compression again.
Best Wishes and Success to All
Take Profits, Not Chances.
Manage Risk to Accumulate. React with Clarity, Not Hope.
Titan Protect | Market Structure. Flow Intelligence. No Noise.
Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research. Macro Pulse positioning reflects data as of July 17, 2025
Analyst: Titan Protect | Economic Calendar Division Educational content only. Not investment advice. Titan Protect does not offer financial services or broker recommendations.
