🛡️ Sentiment Coils Beneath the Surface
📆 Tuesday, July 08, 2025 | ⏰ 10:30 London/BST / 05:30 New York/EDT
📦 Status: VIX compresses, but greed metrics remain elevated — CPI is the inflection
🎯 Executive Summary
AAII Bullish sentiment spikes to 45% — highest since March 2021
CNN Fear & Greed Index hits 75 → Extreme Greed
Put/Call Ratio (CPC) sits at 0.92 — hedges still present, but fading
VIX and VX1! compress — yet VXX inflows rise +6.29%, indicating hedging beneath the surface
Price is calm, sentiment is greedy, but flow suggests institutional caution into CPI
🔍 Sentiment Breakdown
SPX500 Index: Sentiment Index = 71.14 → firmly in Greed Zone
NDX100 Index: Sentiment Index = 69.99 → approaching overbought
Total Sentiment: Market remains in Extreme Greed, led by momentum, breadth, and options
📌 Live Market Snapshot – 10:30 BST / 05:30 EDT
| Asset | Price | Tactical Insight |
|---|---|---|
| SPX | 6,245.2 | Holding >6,200 — CPI likely breakout trigger |
| NDX | 22,781.2 | Stuck below 23K — sentiment high, flow flat |
| BTC | 108,387 | No conviction — flat flow and structure |
| GOLD | 3,324.8 | Losing hedge status — CPI hedge flows absent |
| DXY | 97.517 | Coiling into CPI — macro tone setter |
| CRUDE | 68.11 | Rejected 68.5 — energy flow softens again |
| US10Y | 4.411% | Yield bid into short-duration auctions |
| VIX | 17.26 | Compressed — surface calm, potential snap |
📊 Sentiment Component Breakdown
| Metric | Value | Signal | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNN Index | 75 | Extreme Greed | 🔻 Fade |
| AAII Bullish | 45.0% | +10pt WoW | 🟢 Peaking |
| AAII Bearish | 33.1% | –7pt WoW | 🔻 Drop |
| CPC (Put/Call) | 0.92 | Moderately high | ⚠️ Mixed |
| VXX | 96.30 | +6.29% inflows | 🟠 Hedge bid |
| VIX | 17.26 | –3.03% | 🟢 Calm |
| VX1! | 18.35 | –2.02% | 🔻 Flat |
| SPX Sentiment | 71.14 | Greed | ⚠️ Extended |
| NDX Sentiment | 69.99 | Greed | ⚠️ Elevated |
📈 Insight Summary
Retail sentiment is euphoric (AAII + Fear & Greed)
Volatility surface is calm, but underlying hedge demand rising
Options market continues to unwind protection (CPC declining)
Risk appetite is now disconnected from flow conviction — setups need CPI resolution
📊 Flow Sentiment Panel
| Asset | Flow Bias | Key Zone | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 🟢 Long | 6,200–6,275 | Greed-driven, flow diverging |
| NDX | ⚖️ Neutral | 22,700–23,000 | Sentiment high, price stalled |
| BTC | ⚖️ Neutral | 107K–110K | Structure missing |
| GOLD | 🔻 Short | Below 3,330 | CPI hedge demand absent |
| DXY | ⚖️ Neutral | 97.50 zone | Coiling into macro event |
🧠 Sentiment Watchlist
SPX and NDX both in Greed territory (>69) — often precedes short-term tops
VXX inflows warn of a reversal despite VIX calm
Retail chase vs institutional hedge dynamic continues
CPI remains the volatility release valve
🕰️ Weekly Sentiment Evolution (W27 → W28)
| Component | Last Week (W27) | This Week (W28) | Shift Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAII Bullish % | 35.1% | 45.0% | 🔺 Retail chase increased sharply |
| AAII Bearish % | 40.3% | 33.1% | 🔻 Bearish positioning collapsed |
| CNN Fear & Greed | 68 (Greed) | 75 (Extreme Greed) | 🔺 Top percentile territory reached |
| VIX | 18.10 | 17.26 | 🔻 Surface vol compressed further |
| VXX | 91.0 | 96.3 | 🔺 Institutional hedges back online |
| SPX Flow Sentiment | Positive, cautious | Positive, stretched | ⚠️ Price extended beyond flow support |
| BTC Flow Sentiment | Neutral | Neutral | ➖ No change, no catalyst |
| Gold Flow Sentiment | Defensive bias present | Absent | 🔻 Hedge flows faded entirely |
🧠 Takeaway:
Week-on-week, the market moved from greedy but cautious to fully euphoric — with positioning now dangerously extended just as CPI risk looms. Flow no longer confirms sentiment.
🎯 Trade Playbook
| Trader Type | Opportunity Insight |
|---|---|
| Scalpers | Fade SPX >6,275 if CPI triggers disappointment |
| Intraday | Watch VX1! >19 for any vol breakout confirmation |
| Swing | Wait for sentiment to reset below 65 before adding |
| Position | Stay light until CPI + FOMC direction becomes clear |
🧠 Final Sentiment Outlook
Sentiment is extreme, hedging is rising, and volatility is artificially suppressed. CPI is the inflection — if positioning is wrong-footed, the unwind could be sharp and fast. Stay tactical. Stay hedged.
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Titan Protect | Market Structure. Flow Intelligence. No Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
📉 Sentiment data reflects positioning as of July 08 (reported July 08)
📦 Weekly Reference Tag: 14.SENT-W28-2025 and/or 📦 14.SENT.080725 for daily updates
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice. Titan Protect does not offer financial services or broker recommendations.
