Titan Playbook Series
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## 🎯 The Kelly Criterion (Advanced) For experienced traders with tracked data: **Kelly % = (Win Rate × Avg Win) – (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) ÷ Avg Win** Example: – Win rate: 55% – Avg win: $200 – Avg loss: $100 – Kelly % = (0.55 × 200) – (0.45 × 100) ÷ 200 = 32.5% **Never use full Kelly.** It’s too aggressive. Use “fractional Kelly” — 1/4 to 1/2 of the Kelly percentage. In this example: 8-16% of account per trade (instead of 32.5%). ## 🚀 The Position Size Checklist Before every trade: – [ ] Account risk % calculated (1-2%) – [ ] Stop loss placed at invalidation point – [ ] Position size = risk $ ÷ stop distance – [ ] Total risk comfortable even if trade fails **If any box isn’t checked, don’t take the trade.** ## 📝 Action Items – [ ] Calculate your current position size for your next 3 setups – [ ] If any is >2% account risk, reduce it – [ ] Create a position size calculator spreadsheet **Word Count:** ~650 words **Reading Time:** 3 minutes **Level:** Intermediate *Next in series: The Portfolio Heat Map: Managing Multiple Positions →*
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