🛡️ OPTION WATCH
VIX Back Above 17 — Dealer Short Gamma Forces Higher Hedge Costs
📅 Wednesday, August 13, 2025 | ⏰ 08:00 London BST / 03:00 New York EST
🌐 Coverage: SPX | QQQ | SPY | NDX | Gold | BTC | Oil | DXY | Gamma Bands | Dealer Delta | Vanna Zones
🛡️ TITAN PROTECT ELITE
Multi-Timeframe Trading Intelligence
🚀 Market Breakout Status Alert
🎯 NDX NEW ATH
23,839.20
Breaking above Friday's 23,611.27 - momentum confirmed
📈 SPY Rally
$642.69
+$6.77 (+1.06%) - breaking above resistance
⚖️ VIX Stable
16.25
Unchanged - controlled risk-on environment
🚨 Critical Dual Timeframe Alerts
🎯 NDX Breakout Confirmed
NASDAQ 100 surged to 23,839.20, breaking decisively above Friday's ATH of 23,611.27, confirming bullish momentum continuation.
Next target: 24,000 psychological level
💪 Broad Market Strength
SPY +1.06%, QQQ +1.25%, SPX +1.13% - coordinated rally across major indices with tech leadership intact.
Risk-on sentiment driving flows
💵 Dollar Weakness
DXY declined to 98.04 from 98.52, providing tailwinds for risk assets and commodities in pre-market trading.
Supporting risk-on environment
📊 Tuesday Pre-Market & Early Session Analysis
SPY (Current)
$642.69
+$6.77 (+1.06%)
QQQ (Current)
$580.05
+$7.20 (+1.25%)
VIX (Current)
16.25
Unchanged (0.00%)
DXY (Current)
98.04
-0.48 (-0.49%)
🌅 Enhanced Dual Timeframe Snapshot - Complete Asset Coverage
📈 SPY - S&P 500 ETF
$642.69🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 OI Hot Spots
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 LEAPS & Gamma
🚀 QQQ - NASDAQ 100 ETF
$580.05🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 OI Hot Spots
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 LEAPS & Gamma
📊 SPX500USD - S&P 500 CFD
6,445.76🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 Targets & Outlook
💻 NDX - NASDAQ 100 Index 🚀 NEW ATH
23,839.20🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Breakout Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 LEAPS & Gamma
🚀 NAS100USD - NASDAQ 100 CFD
23,839.20🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 Targets & Outlook
🥇 GOLD - XAU/USD
$3,348.20🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 LEAPS & Targets
🛢️ OIL - WTI Crude
$63.19🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 Outlook & Targets
₿ BTCUSD - Bitcoin
$119,219🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 Targets & Outlook
💵 DXY - Dollar Index
98.04🎯 Key Levels & Walls
🔥 Flow Analysis
💡 Trade Ideas
📈 Targets & Outlook
💓 Dual Timeframe Market Pulse
📈 Short-Term Pulse (1-5 Days)
📊 Medium-Term Pulse (1-4 Weeks)
📋 Master Dual Timeframe Analysis Table
| Asset | Current | Short-Term Bias | Medium-Term Bias | Key Level | Risk Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $642.69 | Bullish | Bullish | $645 Resistance | Medium |
| QQQ | $580.05 | Very Bullish | Bullish | $585 Target | High |
| SPX500USD | 6,445.76 | Bullish | Bullish | 6,460 Resistance | Medium |
| NDX 🚀 | 23,839.20 | Very Bullish | Bullish | New ATH | Very High |
| NAS100USD | 23,839.20 | Very Bullish | Bullish | 24,000 Target | Very High |
| GOLD | $3,348.20 | Neutral | Bullish | $3,370 Resistance | Medium |
| OIL | $63.19 | Bearish | Bearish | $62.50 Support | High |
| BTCUSD | $119,219 | Bullish | Bullish | $120K Resistance | High |
| DXY | 98.04 | Bearish | Neutral | 98.00 Support | Medium |
🏗️ Put/Call Walls & Open Interest Intelligence
📈 Call Walls (Resistance)
📉 Put Walls (Support)
🎯 Max Pain Analysis
🔄 Cross-Timeframe Interaction Analysis
⚡ Short-Term Catalysts
- • NDX ATH Breakout: New all-time high at 23,839.20 confirms tech sector leadership and momentum continuation
- • Broad Market Rally: SPY +1.06%, QQQ +1.25% showing coordinated risk-on sentiment
- • Dollar Weakness: DXY decline to 98.04 providing tailwinds for risk assets and commodities
- • VIX Stability: Unchanged at 16.25 indicating controlled volatility environment
- • Options Flow: Bullish positioning with P/C ratios showing strong call demand
📊 Medium-Term Drivers
- • Tech Leadership: NASDAQ 100 breaking to new highs reinforces AI and tech infrastructure themes
- • Growth Optimism: Market pricing in continued economic expansion and corporate earnings growth
- • Fed Policy: Accommodative stance supporting risk asset valuations and growth sectors
- • Sector Rotation: Technology regaining leadership after recent consolidation period
- • Global Flows: Dollar weakness attracting international capital to US equities
🎯 Convergence Points
- • NDX 24,000 Level: Psychological resistance that could determine next phase of tech rally
- • SPY 650 Target: Major resistance level with significant call wall concentration
- • VIX 15.0 Test: Break below could signal return to extreme low volatility regime
- • DXY 97.0 Support: Critical level for dollar that could impact global risk sentiment
- • Options Expiration (Friday): Weekly expiry could drive positioning and volatility
🎯 Cross-Timeframe Opportunities
🚀 High Probability Setups
NDX Momentum Continuation
New ATH breakout at 23,839.20 with strong volume creates exceptional momentum play toward 24,000
Probability: 88% | Strategy: Long calls/futures above 23,800
SPY Breakout Follow-Through
Breaking above $642 resistance with broad market strength targeting $650 call wall
Probability: 82% | Target: $650
QQQ Tech Leadership
$580 breakout with NDX leadership creates strong setup for $590 target
Probability: 85% | Strategy: Call spreads $580/$590
Dollar Weakness Play
DXY decline to 98.04 creates opportunities in commodities and international assets
Probability: 75% | Target: Gold $3,400+
⚠️ Risk Management Alerts
Overbought Conditions
NDX at new ATH with extended rally creates risk of momentum exhaustion
Monitor: RSI divergence | Hedge: Put spreads on pullback
Volatility Compression Risk
VIX at 16.25 with strong rally could lead to complacency and sudden volatility spike
Watch: VIX below 15.0 | Risk: Volatility expansion
Valuation Stretch
Tech multiples extending with NDX at ATH - monitor for fundamental disconnect
Watch: Earnings revisions | Risk: Multiple compression
Dollar Reversal Risk
DXY weakness supportive but reversal above 98.50 could pressure risk assets
Watch: DXY above 98.50 | Risk: Risk-off rotation
🌊 Dark Pool & Unusual Options Activity
🌊 Dark Pool Flow Intelligence
⚡ Unusual Options Activity (Pre-Market)
📊 Flow Interpretation
🔬 Comprehensive Greeks Analysis
Δ Delta Exposure
Γ Gamma Exposure
Θ Theta Decay
ν Vega Sensitivity
📈 Greeks Impact Analysis
📊 Detailed Asset Profiles
SPY Greeks Profile
QQQ Greeks Profile
NDX Greeks Profile
📚 Multi-Timeframe Trade Playbook
⚡ SCALP (Minutes to Hours)
SPY Momentum
Setup: Breakout continuation
Entry: Above $642.75
Stop: $641.50
Target: $645.00
QQQ Tech Rally
Setup: NDX leadership follow
Entry: Above $580.25
Stop: $579.00
Target: $585.00
NDX ATH Extension
Setup: New high momentum
Entry: Above 23,850
Stop: 23,750
Target: 24,000
BTC Breakout
Setup: $120K resistance test
Entry: Above $119,500
Stop: $118,500
Target: $121,000
📈 INTRADAY (Hours to 1 Day)
SPY Call Spread
Setup: Momentum continuation
Entry: Buy $645C/Sell $650C
Stop: 50% loss
Target: $4.50 spread value
QQQ Long Calls
Setup: Tech leadership play
Entry: $585 Calls
Stop: QQQ below $578
Target: $590+ move
VIX Short Puts
Setup: Volatility compression
Entry: Sell $15 Puts
Stop: VIX above 18.0
Target: Premium decay
DXY Short
Setup: Dollar weakness continuation
Entry: Below 98.00
Stop: Above 98.50
Target: 97.00
🌊 SWING (1-7 Days)
SPY Momentum
Setup: Breakout follow-through
Entry: Aug 16 $650 Calls
Stop: Below $640
Target: $655+
QQQ Tech Rally
Setup: Sector leadership
Entry: Aug 16 $590 Calls
Stop: Below $575
Target: $595+
NDX ATH Extension
Setup: New high momentum
Entry: Aug 16 24000 Calls
Stop: Below 23600
Target: 24200
Gold Recovery
Setup: Dollar weakness benefit
Entry: Long above $3,355
Stop: $3,320
Target: $3,400
🏗️ POSITIONAL (1-4 Weeks)
SPY Sep Calls
Setup: Momentum continuation
Entry: Sep 20 $660 Calls
Stop: 50% loss
Target: $670+ by expiry
QQQ Tech Theme
Setup: AI/Tech leadership
Entry: Sep 20 $600 Calls
Stop: QQQ below $570
Target: $620+ by expiry
NDX Momentum
Setup: ATH breakout extension
Entry: Sep 20 24500 Calls
Stop: NDX below 23400
Target: 25000+ by expiry
Risk-On Theme
Setup: Broad market strength
Entry: Multi-asset exposure
Stop: VIX above 20.0
Target: Momentum continuation
🎯 Asset-Specific Trading Guide
📈 SPY Trading Guide
Breakout Confirmed
Breaking above $642 resistance with strong volume - momentum continuation likely
Strategy: Long calls, call spreads targeting $650
Support at $640
Previous resistance now support with put wall providing technical floor
Strategy: Buy dips to $640-642 range
Target $650
Major call wall at $650 with 58K OI - key resistance level
Strategy: Take profits near $650, watch for breakout
🚀 QQQ Trading Guide
Tech Leadership
NDX ATH breakout driving QQQ momentum - sector leadership confirmed
Strategy: Long exposure, momentum plays
Strong Support $575
Previous resistance now strong support level with institutional buying
Strategy: Buy any dips to $575-580 range
Target $590
Major call wall at $590 - next key resistance level
Strategy: Call spreads $580/$590
💻 NDX Trading Guide
New ATH Breakout
Decisive break above 23,611.27 to 23,839.20 - momentum confirmed
Strategy: Ride momentum, target 24,000
Support at 23,650
Previous ATH now support - critical level to hold
Strategy: Buy any pullback to 23,650-23,700
Target 24,000
Psychological level with major call wall - key target
Strategy: Long calls, momentum continuation
🥇 GOLD Trading Guide
Dollar Weakness Benefit
DXY decline to 98.04 creating tailwinds for gold recovery
Strategy: Long on dollar weakness continuation
Support at $3,330
Strong technical support level with buying interest
Strategy: Buy dips to $3,330-3,340 range
Risk-Off Hedge
Maintain exposure as portfolio hedge against risk-on extremes
Strategy: Long-term hedge positioning
📅 LEAPS Traders - Long-Term Positioning
🎯 High Conviction LEAPS
SPY Jan 2026 $670 Calls
Momentum breakout theme with broad market strength
QQQ Jan 2026 $620 Calls
Tech leadership theme with NDX ATH breakout
NDX Jan 2026 25000 Calls
Tech revolution theme - riding ATH momentum
GLD Jan 2026 $220 Calls
Dollar weakness and portfolio hedge theme
⚠️ Risk Management Framework
Position Sizing
Maximum 5% portfolio allocation per LEAPS position
Increase size in momentum environment
Delta Management
Target 0.40-0.55 delta for optimal risk/reward
Consider rolling up strikes on strength
Profit Taking
Take partial profits at 100% gain
Let winners run in momentum environment
Volatility Adjustment
Higher IV environment - adjust expectations
Consider selling premium against long positions
📊 LEAPS Performance Tracking
🧠 Analyst Layer: Flow + Memory Signals
🔁 Dealer Delta Summary
Dealer positioning shows significant increase in net short delta exposure across major indices, indicating strong institutional buying and bullish positioning following NDX ATH breakout. VIX stability at 16.25 despite strong rally suggests controlled risk-on environment, while broad market participation confirms momentum sustainability.
Conclusion: Increased dealer short delta positioning creates highly supportive environment for upside momentum. Breakout confirmation driving institutional hedging needs and momentum amplification effects.
📊 Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) & Skew
📊 Volatility Context – August 13, 2025
Volatility environment shows controlled expansion with IVR remaining in lower percentiles despite strong rally. Put skew becoming more extreme bullish indicates reduced hedging demand and increased call buying. VIX stability at 16.25 suggests market confidence in rally sustainability. Momentum breakouts typically see continued skew extremes.
🔁 Vanna/Charm Zone Sensitivity
SPY Vanna Analysis
QQQ Vanna Analysis
NDX Vanna Analysis
Charm (Time Decay) Impact
Vanna Analysis Conclusion: Stable volatility creating positive vanna pressure across major indices. Critical momentum levels at SPY $645, QQQ $585, and NDX 24,000 where breaks could trigger accelerated buying from positive vanna effects.
🔮 Pattern-Match Memory Table
📊 Historical Pattern Match – Titan Memory
Pattern Conclusion: Historical precedent suggests 78-85% probability of momentum continuation with ATH breakouts in stable volatility environment. Similar setups typically see 2-4 week rallies with minimal pullbacks. Current setup most similar to March 2024 scenario.
🧠 Aggregate Options Sentiment
Options Market Sentiment Overview
Aggregate sentiment analysis reveals shift to extreme bullish positioning. The 0.58 P/C ratio indicates strong call dominance, while maximum dealer short gamma positioning suggests strong momentum amplification. Cross-asset flow shows aggressive risk-on positioning with concentrated buying in growth sectors.
Sentiment Breakdown by Asset Class
Sentiment Breakdown by Timeframe
🎯 Professional Analyst Synthesis
• Flow Regime: Shift to extreme bullish with maximum dealer short delta and aggressive institutional buying
• Momentum Catalyst: NDX ATH breakout at 23,839.20 confirms tech leadership and triggers momentum continuation
• Volatility Control: VIX stability at 16.25 despite strong rally indicates controlled risk-on environment
• Technical Strength: Broad market participation with SPY, QQQ, NDX all breaking key resistance levels
• Risk Management: Monitor overbought conditions, volatility compression, and momentum exhaustion signals
🔮 Forward Focus & Preparation
📅 Today (Aug 13)
📊 This Week (Aug 13-16)
🎯 Jackson Hole (Aug 23)
🚨 Critical Levels Monitoring
📋 Momentum Day Preparation Checklist
✅ Momentum Continuation
- • Position for breakout follow-through above key levels
- • Monitor futures for pre-market strength continuation
- • Prepare for momentum acceleration trades
- • Set alerts for critical resistance breakouts
- • Review historical momentum patterns
📊 Risk Management
- • Monitor for overbought conditions and divergences
- • Watch VIX for volatility compression signals
- • Track unusual options activity for sentiment shifts
- • Assess dealer positioning changes
- • Prepare for potential momentum exhaustion
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
Titan Protect | Market Structure. Flow Intelligence. No Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
📉 Option Watch data reflects positioning as of August 13 (reported August 13)
✍️ Analyst: Titan Protect | Options Division
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice. Titan Protect does not offer financial services or broker recommendations.
📦 OPTION-W33-2025
📦 OPTION130825
