✅ Alpha Insights — Weekly Macro Watch
🗓 Week of Monday 12 May 2025 (all times London unless stated)
🔍 Macro Pulse
A two‑way tussle is playing out: disinflation tail‑winds from last Tuesday’s softer U.S. CPI print are bumping into still‑sticky producer prices due Thursday and a chorus of Fed officials unwilling to declare victory just yet. In Europe the Bank of England cut Bank Rate to 4.25 % last week, the first trim of this cycle, adding weight to the “policy‑easing is coming” narrative. China’s credit numbers disappointed, keeping the global growth debate alive, while the Middle‑East risk premium in oil has faded but not disappeared. Expect a week of “data‑dependent” sound‑bites and tactical, range‑bound trading.
🌐 Regional Rundown
Americas: Post‑CPI relief rally faces the reality check of PPI (Thu) and retail sales; Fed speakers dominate tape reading.
EMEA: BoE’s dovish trim tempers GBP strength; euro‑area industrial production (Wed) will test the “green‑shoots” thesis.
APAC: Aussie wage data kept the RBA hawkish for now; Chinese credit softness raises fresh stimulus chatter.
🗓 Key Calendar Highlights
Mon: NY Fed inflation expectations; Fed’s Bostic.
Tue: U.S. NFIB small‑biz optimism; multiple Fed speakers.
Wed: Euro‑area industrial production; U.K. labour‑market report.
Thu: U.S. PPI & Retail Sales (Apr); BoC speech; ECB minutes.
Fri: U. Mich sentiment (prelim); G7 finance ministers kick‑off in Tokyo.
🛠️ Titan Watchlist
DXY: Dollar index stalled at 104 after CPI miss — watching for follow‑through on PPI.
Gold: Resilience above £1 920/oz despite lower real yields; macro score tilt remains supportive.
WTI: Risk premium bled off; guide bands show $77.50–80.00 congestion.
S&P 500 Futures: Sentiment gauge still >80 % bullish; compression signals hint at range expansion.
✅ Final Word
Macro volatility is compressing again. Let the data lead: fade knee‑jerk moves and stay alert for rotation if PPI re‑ignites pricing‑power fears. Trade the tape, not the headlines.
This note reflects how I’m framing markets with the Titan Protect stack – not financial advice.
