🛡️ Macro Pulse

Fed Confirmed Pause + DXY Unwind → Macro Bias Rotates

📆 Monday, July 21, 2025 | ⏰ 09:45 London/BST / 04:45 New York/EDT
📦 Status: Fed Confirmed Pause + DXY Unwind → Macro Bias Rotates

Markets open this week with a key inflection in macro tone: the Fed’s confirmed pause, combined with softening inflation signals and labour resilience, is creating a rare “window of alignment” across risk assets. We are entering a critical rotation phase — and traders leaning the wrong way into event clusters will get punished.

🔎 Strategic Snapshot

• SPX tested >6,260 as volatility compressed — bullish confirmation if 6,295 clears
• DXY broke soft after CPI and PPI — commodities bid, FX rebalancing
• Gold & Silver now rotating on weak USD + inflation hedge rebid
• BTC stalled at 119K but holding structure — watching ETH for leadership
• VIX closed under 16.9 — risk compression still intact despite macro crosscurrents

🧠 Strategic Outlook: Week 4 as the Macro Fulcrum

We’re heading into a critical stretch of July with the macro engine firing on all cylinders — but now potentially overheating. After three weeks of progressive alignment — from disinflation (PPI, CPI) to upside surprises in retail and housing — Week 4 brings durable goods, flash PMIs, and Core PCE, all stacked into a compressed event window.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire risk-on rally now sits on a disinflation thesis, and any CPI/PCE reacceleration or breakdown in PMIs could shatter the calm. This is event risk week — where setups form from stability and snap violently on surprises.

✅ Titan Weekly Macro Intelligence — July 01–18 Review

🟢 Week 3: July 14–18 Recap

🧠 Pulse Strip
🔻 Inflation | 🟢 Growth | 🟢 Labour | 🟢 Fed | ✅ Market Bias

📄 Surprise/Fade Table
🔺 Philly Fed boom → Rotation confirmed
🔻 Inflation pressure faded (PPI cooling)

✅ Titan Economic Pulse Matrix – July 2025

🔍 This Week’s Macro Shifts – What to Watch (July 22–26)

1. 🔴 Thursday – GDP Q2 Advance Est.
   → Forecast: +1.8%
   → If beat: 🔼 SPX, RTY breakout risk
   → If miss: Bond bid returns, VIX spikes

2. 🔴 Friday – Core PCE YoY
   → Forecast: 2.9%
   → >3.0% = volatility risk reactivates
   → Inline/under = confirms dovish narrative

3. 🟡 Durable Goods + PMIs (Tue/Wed)
   → If both expand: RTY/Industrials rotation confirms
   → Miss: Rotation fails, tech regains lead

🎯 Titan Macro Setup Engine – July 22–26

📊 Triple Delta Flow Snapshot — July 19 Close

🧠 Interpretation: Positioning remains risk-on biased — but only while macro data confirms. Core PCE + GDP are landmines. Watch VIX very closely.

Titan Triple Delta View — Jul 18 → Jul 19 AM → Jul 21 Now

📆 Monday, 21 July 2025 — Weekend-to-Open Transition

🔒 Weekend Delta Context Note
Markets were closed over the weekend — no intraday movement occurred from Saturday AM to Sunday night.
This edition serves as the macro anchor for Monday readiness, identifying conviction shifts, volatility posture, and leading asset clues.

🕐 Delta View: Jul 18 Close → Jul 19 AM

(09:00 London/GMT, 04:00 New York/EDT)

🕑 Delta View: Jul 19 AM → Jul 21 Now

(Snapshot: Monday Open @ 09:48 BST)

🔎 Titan Flow Intelligence 

🔺 1. Volatility Inflection Alert

• VIX +0.91%, VVIX +1.45%, VX1!/VX2! +0.36% / +0.43%
  • Interpretation: Volatility is rising, but steadily — suggesting coiled pressure beneath equities. Institutions are lightly hedging, but not panicking. A trigger zone looms.

📍 Trigger Panel (Next 24–48h)

• VIX > 17.0 + VVIX > 95.0 → ⚠️ Pre-breakout skew
• SPX < 6,280 + rising vol → 🔻 Breakdown Setup Risk
• SPX > 6,320 + falling vol → ✅ Breakout Confirmation

🔄 2. Micro Rotation Tracker

• NDX: Mild upward drift — but momentum flattening
  • RTY: Weekend stall after fade — ⚠️ Reversal risk building
  • BTC: –0.07% fade after rally — 📉 Trap setup emerging
  • Silver: Strongest performer — but 38.00 becomes make-or-break zone
  • Crude: Early drop on Monday — 💤 No follow-through

📌 Rotation Watchlist

• BTC → 📉 Breakdown trap in play
• RTY → ⚠️ Watch for failed rotation
• Silver → ✅ Still leading — but re-test of strength incoming
• Crude → 🔻 Weakness showing — fade risk increasing

📶 3. Flow Confidence Scoring

🌡️ 4. Conviction Transition Matrix

🧾 5. Summary Statement

“Friday’s intraday leaders — BTC, RTY, and Crude — lost steam into the weekend. While volatility cooled, it remains coiled beneath the surface. Silver continues to outperform, and equities remain compressed below the 6,320 resistance level. Expect tactical breakout or failure zones to define the Monday narrative.”

🧠 Strategic Insight Summary – Weekend Review

• Risk Environment:
  Thursday’s strength faded into the weekend. BTC, RTY, and Crude gave back gains. This suggests tactical hesitation near resistance and risk of rotation failure.
• Leadership Clarity:
  Silver remains the most reliable performer — supported by soft dollar, elevated vol, and macro hedging bias. Growth names have yet to take clear lead.
• Volatility Insight:
  Despite vol compression Friday, VVIX and VIX lifted at Monday’s open. Hedge demand is returning, not panic-driven but indicative of defensive posture.
• Macro Layers (Dollar & Yields):
  DXY drifted lower, and US10Y yields ticked higher — classic mixed tone. Gold and Silver capitalizing on the gap between weak dollar and cautious yields.
• No Weekend Intraday Bias:
  Saturday’s static data made this the perfect base to anchor weekly setups. With real-time Monday flow now active, positioning zones from this review are in play.

💬 Fed Watch – July Summary

🎯 Next Rate Decision: July 31 → Hold expected. Powell press conference pivotal.

🔄 Titan Macro Bias Strip (Visual)

🔁 Final Macro Takeaway (Weeks 1–4)

“July began in confusion but morphed into alignment — inflation softened, labour held, and growth surprised. Week 4 is the test: does the soft landing thesis hold under PCE and PMI scrutiny, or do we revert to volatility? Titans will adapt. Tourists will get run over.”

Titan Protect Macro Lens

 🧭 Titan Weekly Macro Intelligence — July 01–18

🟡 Week 1: July 01–05

🧠 Pulse Strip:
🟠 Inflation | 🟠 Growth | 🔺 Labour | 🟡 Fed | ⚖️ Market Bias

Mini Matrix Summary:

📄 Weekly Surprise/Fade Table

🟢 Week 2: July 07–12

🧠 Pulse Strip:
🔻 Inflation | 🟢 Growth | 🟢 Labour | 🟡 Fed | 🟢 Market Bias

Mini Matrix Summary:

📄 Weekly Surprise/Fade Table

✅ Week 3: July 14–18

🧠 Pulse Strip:
🔻 Inflation | 🟢 Growth | 🟢 Labour | 🟢 Fed | ✅ Market Bias

Mini Matrix Summary:

📄 Weekly Surprise/Fade Table

✅ Titan Economic Pulse Matrix – July 2025

🔍 Legend:

• ✅ = Confirmed Week
• ⏳ = Forward-Mapped Outlook
• 🟢 = Strong / Positive
• 🟠 = Neutral / Mixed
• 🔻 / 🔺 = Cooling / Rising Shift
• ⚖️ = Flat / Indecisive
• 🧩 = Glide Pattern / Alignment
• 🎯 = Event Focus

📈 Rolling Macro Bias Strip – July 2025

Weekly visual narrative of Titan’s evolving macro read.

• Week 1 → ⚖️ Neutral
  Conflicted labour data, mixed manufacturing tone
• Week 2 → 🟢 Mild Risk-On
  Disinflation begins, labour resilient, fiscal surplus surprise
• Week 3 → ✅ Confirmed Risk-On
  Retail & housing strength, PPI softens, Fed pause solidifies
• Week 4 → ⏳ Soft Bid Holds
  Watching PMIs, Durable Goods, Core PCE for follow-through
• Week 5 → ⏳ Event Risk Builds
  FOMC decision + Powell presser could tilt August trajectory

💬 Fed Watch – July Recap

Summary of Fed communications and tone drift.

• 🧠 Powell (Jul 3): “We’re on the right track.” → 🟡 Neutral
• 🧠 Waller (Jul 12): “We’re not quite there yet.” → 🔺 Slightly hawkish
• 📄 FOMC Minutes (Jul 17): “Disinflation trends holding.” → 🟢 Dovish lean
• 🎯 Outlook: No rate move expected in July. September optionality open.

🔄 Signal Bar Audit – Week 3

🔎 Use this to validate forward forecasts and bias shifts.

🔍 This Week’s 3 Macro Shifts – Week 3 (Jul 14–18)

1. 🟢 Retail & Philly Fed Beat
   → Growth impulse confirmed, rotation into cyclicals and RTY
2. 🔻 PPI Cools
   → Reinforces disinflation trend, supports Fed pause
3. ✅ Market Rotation Active
   → NDX steady, crude/btc fading = tech and discretionary take lead

📈 Rolling Macro Bias Strip – July 2025

Weekly visual narrative of Titan’s evolving macro read.

• Week 1 → ⚖️ Neutral
  Conflicted labour data, mixed manufacturing tone
• Week 2 → 🟢 Mild Risk-On
  Disinflation begins, labour resilient, fiscal surplus surprise
• Week 3 → ✅ Confirmed Risk-On
  Retail & housing strength, PPI softens, Fed pause solidifies
• Week 4 → ⏳ Soft Bid Holds
  Watching PMIs, Durable Goods, Core PCE for follow-through
• Week 5 → ⏳ Event Risk Builds
  FOMC decision + Powell presser could tilt August trajectory

💬 Fed Watch – July Recap

Summary of Fed communications and tone drift.

• 🧠 Powell (Jul 3): “We’re on the right track.” → 🟡 Neutral
• 🧠 Waller (Jul 12): “We’re not quite there yet.” → 🔺 Slightly hawkish
• 📄 FOMC Minutes (Jul 17): “Disinflation trends holding.” → 🟢 Dovish lean
• 🎯 Outlook: No rate move expected in July. September optionality open.

🔄 Signal Bar Audit – Week 3

🔎 Use this to validate forward forecasts and bias shifts.

🔍 This Week’s 3 Macro Shifts – Week 3 (Jul 14–18)

1. 🟢 Retail & Philly Fed Beat
   → Growth impulse confirmed, rotation into cyclicals and RTY
2. 🔻 PPI Cools
   → Reinforces disinflation trend, supports Fed pause
3. ✅ Market Rotation Active
   → NDX steady, crude/btc fading = tech and discretionary take lead

 🎯 Titan Macro Setup Engine – July 2025

✅ Week 1: July 01–05

Theme: 🔄 Mixed Start — JOLTs strong, ADP shock miss, NFP rebound

Bias: ⚖️ Mixed-to-cautious. Labour stable, inflation muted, VIX non-directional.

✅ Week 2: July 07–12

Theme: 🧩 Steady Glide — inflation expectations fall, claims steady, budget surprise

Bias: 🟢 Clean pro-carry week. Bonds strong, tech led, no fear spikes.

✅ Week 3: July 14–18

Theme: 💪 Resilient Rebound — Retail & Housing beat, PPI softens, Fed holds

Bias: ✅ All engines aligned. Full rotation confirmed. Low-vol breakout bias live.

⏳ Week 4: July 21–26

Theme: 🧠 Crosscurrents — Durables, PMIs, Core PCE, earnings scatter

Risk: 🔺 PCE above 0.3% = reversal + yield spike

⏳ Week 5: July 29–31

Theme: 🎯 FOMC Inflection — Rate hold, Powell press conference, JOLTs, Conf.

Bias: 🔺 Event-driven spike window. Expect volatility pivot.

📊 Visual Macro-to-Setup Summary – July 2025

🛠️ Titan Triple Delta View – Premium Macro Risk Dashboard

📆 July 2025 Edition – Weeks 1–5

📈 Rolling Macro Bias Strip – July 2025

A visual strip showing the narrative evolution week-by-week:

💬 Fed Watch – July Recap

🎯 July Outlook: No rate move expected. Fed in pause mode. September remains open.

🔍 This Week’s 3 Macro Shifts (July 14–18)

1. 🟢 Retail & Philly Fed Beat
   → Growth impulse confirmed, RTY and cyclicals rotate higher
2. 🔻 PPI Cools
   → Disinflationary trend builds, strengthens Fed pause thesis
3. ✅ Risk-On Rotation
   → Tech steady, metals firm, energy and crypto fade = confirmation bias

📊 Weekly Surprise/Fade Table

🔄 Economic Pulse Matrix – July 2025

✅ TITAN TRIPLE DELTA VIEW — JULY 2025 (WEEKS 1–5)

🧭 TITAN MACRO BIAS STRIP (WEEKLY EVOLUTION)

🔄 ECONOMIC PULSE MATRIX – JULY 2025

🎯 MACRO SETUP ENGINE – WEEKLY STRATEGIC INSIGHTS

✅ WEEK 1: Mixed Start

• Macro Shifts: JOLTs strong, ADP weak, NFP rebounds
• Playbook: Fade TLT early → then Tech/Gold long late-week
• Bias: ⚖️ Mixed-to-cautious

✅ WEEK 2: Steady Glide

• Macro Shifts: Inflation expectations drop, budget surplus, claims steady
• Playbook: Bond bid returns → Tech rotation resumes
• Bias: 🟢 Carry-friendly, disinflation supported

✅ WEEK 3: Resilient Rebound

• Macro Shifts: Retail/Philly Fed boom, PPI cools, Fed dovish
• Playbook: RTY rotation, Gold ↑, VIX ↓
• Bias: ✅ Full Risk-On — strongest week confirmation

⏳ WEEK 4: Soft Bid Holds

• Watch: PMIs > 50, Durable Goods, Core PCE @ 0.2–0.3%
• Playbook (If Met): RTY, XLI ↑; VIX compressing
• Bias: 🟢 Mild continuation if inflation stays tame

⏳ WEEK 5: FOMC Inflection

• Watch: Dovish Powell, PCE 2.9% YoY, JOLTs and Consumer Confidence
• Playbook: SPX/NDX breakout or rate spike reversal
• Bias: 🔺 Volatility event window

🔍 THIS MONTH’S STRATEGIC SHIFTS (TOP 3 PER WEEK)

📈 TRIPLE DELTA FLOW SNAPSHOT – JULY 19 WEEKEND EDITION

• BTC: -0.38% → breakout trap risk
• Silver: +0.32% → clear leader, real asset bid
• Crude: +0.09% → still rangebound
• VIX: -1.20% → compression into resistance
• SPX: -0.01% → coiling below 6,320

💡 Flow Note: Volatility remains coiled, not triggered. Silver leads, while BTC, RTY, and Crude have faded into weekend. Risk-on tone needs catalyst Monday.

🧠 FINAL MACRO TAKEAWAY (WEEKS 1–5)

“July opened conflicted but quickly evolved into a full soft-landing narrative: retail strength, falling PPI, firm housing, and dovish Fed tone. As we enter Weeks 4 and 5, all eyes turn to PCE and the FOMC — the only credible threat to this calm is a data-driven reacceleration.”

📅 Tuesday, July 01, 2025

🔍 All Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 01

• Labour Market:
  → 🔺 JOLTs Job Openings beat massively (7.77M vs 7.1M)
  → Job Quits rose = confidence intact
  → Fed unlikely to pivot dovish — market will see this as sticky labour
• Manufacturing:
  → ISM beat (49.0) confirms resilience just below expansion line
  → S&P PMI final revision (52.9) also strong
  → Tactical implication: recession fears soften
• Inflation Inputs:
  → Prices Paid (69.7) held high — disinflation not clearly progressing
  → Reinforces “higher for longer” Fed tone despite manufacturing recovery
• Fed Chair Powell Speech:
  → No surprise pivot — Powell maintained “data-dependent” tone
  → Market remained rangebound, awaiting jobs and CPI
• Consumer View:
  → Economic optimism dipped slightly, but vehicle sales stable (15.3M)
  → Underpins soft-landing narrative
• Energy:
  → API build (+0.68M vs -2.26M expected) capped crude price action
  → No support from energy to drive inflation expectations up

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 01

“Strong JOLTs and resilient manufacturing paint a firm macro backdrop. Despite Powell’s neutrality, markets priced in sticky inflation and tight labour — limiting hopes for dovish relief.”

📅 Wednesday, July 02, 2025

🔍 All Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 02

• Labour Market Shock:
  → 🔻 ADP Employment came in at -33K vs 90K expected — a massive miss.
  → First real weakness in private payrolls — this could rattle confidence if NFP follows suit.
  → Market reaction muted, expecting official data to moderate the signal.
• Challenger Job Cuts:
  → 47.9K vs 110K forecast = way below — supports mixed labour view
  → Suggests employers are cautious but not slashing yet
• Housing Tone:
  → Mortgage rates fell (6.79%) and apps rose across the board
  → Refinance index jumped = interest rate sensitivity triggering flows
  → Housing stabilising → macro soft landing support
• Energy Data:
  → EIA Crude +3.845M & Gasoline +4.188M = heavy stock build
  → Oil supply remains glutted — caps crude price & energy inflation fears
  → Distillates (diesel, heating oil) mixed → no industrial panic
• Rates:
  → Treasury auction slightly softer at 4.185% → short-end still attractive but not crowding

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 02

“ADP’s sharp miss cracks the ‘resilient jobs’ narrative — even as job cuts fall. Housing shows life as rates ease, and energy builds pressure crude lower. Market now eyeing NFP for confirmation of labour softness.”

🔍 All Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 03

• Labour Market:
  → 🔺 Headline NFP beat (147K vs 110K), Unemployment ticked lower to 4.1%
  → But… Private Payrolls disappointed (74K vs 105K)
  → Wages cooled (0.2% MoM, 3.7% YoY) → clear disinflation in earnings
• Services Sector:
  → ISM Services PMI jumped to 50.8 (vs 49.7 expected) = back above expansion line
  → New orders climbed = demand recovery, but employment weakened (47.2) = lagging labour
• Factory Data:
  → Headline orders +8.2% huge beat vs -3.9% prior
  → Ex-transportation up just +0.2% = narrow strength
  → Confirms rebound, but breadth still in question
• Inflation:
  → ISM Prices Paid dropped (67.5) = input pressure easing
  → Combined with wage cooling = favourable for bonds and tech
• Energy:
  → Natural gas build in line, but rig count falling → supply moderation likely ahead
• Rates:
  → 4- and 8-week bill auctions stable at 4.24% and 4.30%
  → Short-end bid remains healthy — no panic pricing

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 03

“Headline jobs beat belies soft private sector hiring and cooling wages — a perfect combo for soft-landing believers. Services rebounded, but employment lags. Inflation inputs easing across the board — bond-friendly, equity-neutral, and Fed-comfortable.”

📅 Friday, July 04, 2025

🇺🇸 U.S. Independence Day – Market Holiday

🔍 Scheduled Releases:

None — all markets closed

🧠 Tactical Insight – July 04

• No economic releases, no Treasury auctions, and no energy prints.
• Volumes were already tapering into the close on July 03.
• Traders used Thursday’s NFP beat + wage disinflation to rebalance into:
  • Bond longs (favouring soft-landing narrative)
  • Tech hold levels (NDX remained rangebound but constructive)
  • Crude capped after storage builds earlier in week

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 04

“U.S. markets closed. Thursday’s data will act as the anchor heading into the following Monday’s reopen. With wages cooling and services expanding, the Fed will likely stay patient — no near-term hikes or cuts implied.”

📅 Monday, July 07, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 07

• Rates Environment:
  → Both short-term auctions (3M @ 4.255%, 6M @ 4.145%) held steady
  → Confirms no shift in front-end rate expectations
  → Investors still parking cash defensively — macro tone is cautious, not panicked
• Fed Liquidity:
  → Balance sheet unchanged at $6.66T
  → Signals no acceleration in Quantitative Tightening (QT)
  → Supports the “wait and watch” narrative from Powell’s prior speech
• Market Interpretation:
  → With NFP and PPI behind, markets used Monday to stabilize positioning
  → Equities saw neutral flow, and dollar drifted sideways
  → Gold and Silver held gains from prior disinflation signals

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 07

“No macro shock or liquidity shift — bills steady, Fed balance sheet flat. The week opens in a holding pattern after last week’s jobs/economy mix. Watch for Tuesday inflation expectations and Powell to move positioning.”

📅 Tuesday, July 08, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 08

• Inflation Expectations Shift:
  → 🔻 Consumer inflation expectations dropped to 3.0% (vs 3.2%)
  → Reinforces disinflation narrative from PPI and wages
  → Fed likely to treat this as evidence of policy effectiveness
• Auto Price Spike:
  → Used car prices surged +1.6% MoM and +6.3% YoY
  → Could skew headline CPI prints ahead
  → Interpreted as sector-specific, not broad inflation
• NFIB Small Business Sentiment:
  → 98.6 vs 99.0 expected — marginal dip
  → Indicates neutral confidence but no deterioration
• Retail Data via Redbook:
  → Jumped to +5.9% YoY from +4.9%
  → Suggests consumer demand holding up — positive for earnings tone
• Consumer Credit:
  → Big miss: +$5.1B vs $12.1B forecast
  → Borrowing slowed sharply — could signal caution or improved household balance sheets
  → If trend continues, may pressure retail and growth later
• Energy:
  → 🔺 API build +7.1M barrels vs -2.8M expected = surprise oversupply
  → Crude likely capped below resistance — bearish bias resumes
• Treasury Demand:
  → 3Y and 1Y auctions firm (3.891%, 3.925%)
  → Indicates healthy demand for mid-curve yields — dovish implications

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 08

“Consumers expect lower inflation, but used car prices and API crude spike flag near-term distortions. Credit expansion slowed notably — a caution signal under the surface. Demand for Treasuries firm, supporting soft-landing narrative.”

📅 Wednesday, July 09, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 09

• Housing Acceleration:
  → Mortgage apps jumped +9.4% — biggest in months
  → Refi activity surging (829.3) = clear rate sensitivity
  → Signals improving housing activity as 30Y rate ticks down to 6.77%
  → Bullish for homebuilders, neutral for inflation
• Inventories Falling:
  → Wholesale inventories fell -0.3% = supply chains clearing
  → May support future production bump if demand holds
  → Positive for cyclical rotation if trend persists
• Energy Oversupply (Again):
  → Crude oil stock +7.07M vs -2M expected → another shock build
  → Gasoline draw was large, but net supply conditions still heavy
  → Market likely to remain capped on oil — bearish energy outlook
• Refinery Flows:
  → Crude runs dipped → possible capacity rollover
  → Cushing storage up = no demand spike
  → Despite gasoline draw, pricing pressure remains low
• FOMC Minutes (Key Signal):
  → Tone: “wait and reassess”
  → Majority support pausing, with concern over lagging data effects
  → Reinforced dovish lean without promising cuts — market saw it as neutral-to-bullish
• Treasury Auction:
  → 17-Week at 4.230% = bid holding at recent average
  → Confirms no front-end stress

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 09

“Housing and refinance activity accelerate, while inventories fall — two soft-landing positives. Oil stocks surprise again, keeping crude capped. FOMC minutes confirm a cautious but not hawkish Fed. Market likely interprets the day as macro supportive, not euphoric.”

📅 Thursday, July 10, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 10

• Labour Market Holding:
  → Initial claims at 227K beat expectations (232K)
  → Continuing claims fell to 1.86M — first notable drop in several weeks
  → Implies labour softness seen in ADP was temporary
  → This supports continued Fed pause, not pivot
• Wholesale Flow Acceleration:
  → Sales surged +1.4% vs +0.2% forecast
  → Back-to-back inventory draw + sales boost = supply chain recovery accelerating
  → This may lift GDP expectations if sustained
• Energy Context:
  → Natural gas storage build slightly above expectations
  → Neutral tone for utilities/commodities — no pricing pressure
• Fed Tone via Goolsbee:
  → Leaned cautious but not alarmed: “some disinflation, but want to see more”
  → Reinforces patient stance → no cuts imminent, but no urgency to hike either
• Short-Term Rates:
  → Both bill auctions stable: 4.255% (4-week) and 4.295% (8-week)
  → Confirms liquidity preferences intact — no signs of stress or forced risk-taking

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 10

“Jobless claims fall across both prints — a stabilizing signal for the labour market. Wholesale sales accelerate, suggesting supply chains are unclogging. Fed commentary remains cautiously neutral. Net read: constructive macro tone without sparking rate cut expectations.”

📅 Friday, July 11, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 11

• Massive Fiscal Turnaround:
  → June budget swung to +$27B surplus from -$347B in May
  → Driven by higher tax receipts and restrained spending
  → Strongest June performance in multiple years
• Implications:
  → No immediate pressure for Treasury to accelerate issuance
  → May support yields easing at the margin
  → Strong fiscal footing supports soft-landing narrative and reduces Fed pressure
• Market Read:
  → No other scheduled macro data → Friday used as a positioning day
  → Equities drifted; bonds firmed slightly
  → DXY remained stable; gold flat after week-long climb

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 11

“Surprise fiscal surplus in June ($27B) restores confidence in Treasury funding glidepath. With no inflation or labour data prints, market used the day to consolidate. Bonds remained firm, and equities showed no fear.”

📅 Monday, July 14, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 14

• Front-End Rates Steady:
  → 3M and 6M auctions came in at 4.245% and 4.125% respectively
  → Continuation of orderly funding tone — no fear in short end
  → Confirms investor comfort with rate path — no expectations of hikes or cuts
• Fed Balance Sheet Flat:
  → Stuck at $6.66T for second week
  → Indicates QT is on autopilot, but no acceleration of liquidity drain
  → Reinforces Powell’s tone of “monitor and reassess”
• Market Read:
  → Monday tone was sideways and preparatory, awaiting CPI on Tuesday
  → Equity markets held recent gains; gold and silver flat
  → Dollar firmed slightly, but real rates unchanged

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 14

“Markets opened the week in pre-CPI mode. Bills stable, Fed liquidity unchanged — no hawkish shift. Macro tone remains constructive but data-dependent. Investors parked in short-term safety ahead of inflation test.”

📅 Tuesday, July 15, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 15

• Inflation Data (The Big One):
  → CPI YoY rose to 2.7% from 2.4% — largely expected
  → Core CPI ticked down slightly to 2.9% — in line with forecast
  → MoM readings show inflation is steady, not re-accelerating
  → This was bullish for bonds and neutral for equities
• Sticky or Not?
  → The Fed will focus on Core CPI MoM holding at 0.2%
  → It shows no fresh pressure, but also no collapse in pricing power
• Fed Speaker Tone:
  → All speakers reinforced the “watch and wait” message
  → Logan warned against over-interpreting one data point
  → Market sees this as confirmation of Fed pause into late summer
• Crude Oil Shock:
  → API report showed +19.1M barrel build = supply shock
  → This is the largest build in over a year
  → Crude reversed gains → energy equities pulled back hard

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 15

“CPI was steady and unalarming — inflation is not dead, but it’s not accelerating. Core remained at 2.9%. Fed speakers leaned cautious, reinforcing the pause. Crude oil’s surprise +19M barrel API build triggered energy selloffs. Overall macro tone: calm but watchful.”

📅 Wednesday, July 16, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 16

• PPI Disinflation Confirmed:
  → Headline PPI dropped to 2.3% YoY (from 2.7%)
  → MoM flat at 0.0% = no inflation pulse at producer level
  → Core also ticked down slightly → broad easing in pipeline prices
  → Bullish for bonds, rate-sensitive tech
• Production Rebounds:
  → Industrial Production surged +0.7% vs +0.1% est
  → Manufacturing also rose +0.5% → factories stabilising
  → Capacity Utilization improving = demand picking up
  → Risk-on tone supported; GDP revisions likely tick higher
• Housing Neutral:
  → NAHB Index held steady at 45 → no new deterioration, but still in pessimism zone
  → Reinforces that housing is no longer deteriorating, but not yet recovering
• Beige Book Highlights:
  → Fed regions reported “modest to moderate” growth
  → Inflation seen as “easing gradually,” especially in goods
  → Labour market seen as “balanced,” wage pressures softening
  → Market viewed this as confirmation of disinflation + pause regime

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 16

“Producer inflation cooled sharply, while industrial production surged. This rare mix of disinflation + output strength boosted risk tone and bonds. Fed’s Beige Book confirmed regional softness fading — adds confidence to soft-landing thesis.”

📅 Thursday, July 17, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 17

• Consumer Spending Roars Back:
  → Retail Sales +0.6%, ex-autos +0.5% — strong beats after prior contraction
  → Suggests consumer remains active despite higher rates
  → Reinforces soft landing thesis, especially for cyclical equities
• Labour Market Solid:
  → Initial claims fell to 221K, a better print than expected
  → Continuing claims flat at 1.86M → labour resilience sustained
  → Fed unlikely to shift stance based on this
• Philly Fed Shock Beat:
  → Surged to +15.9 vs -4.0 est = massive sentiment reversal
  → Suggests regional manufacturing turning positive
  → Supports rotation into industrials, value stocks
• Price Inputs Falling:
  → Import -0.3%, Export -0.6% = disinflation from trade channels
  → Confirms pipeline pricing pressure continues to fall
  → Bullish for bonds, tech, and real assets
• Fed Commentary:
  → Waller and Cook neutral → no challenge to pause narrative
  → Yield auctions stable → no stress or rate panic

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 17

“Retail and Philly Fed surprises showed strong internal economic resilience. Disinflation from import/export pricing added to the dovish macro tone. Labour market remains stable. Markets treated this as a green light for risk and rates to drift lower.”

📅 Friday, July 18, 2025

🔍 Economic Events

🧠 Tactical Insights – July 18

• Housing Shows Life Again:
  → Starts rebounded +4.6%, and permits up +0.2%
  → Indicates housing is not collapsing despite rates
  → Bullish for homebuilders, neutral to mildly inflationary
• Consumer Sentiment Improves:
  → UMich sentiment rose to 61.8 vs 60.7
  → Confidence bottoming → supports consumer activity heading into Q3
  → Inflation expectations held steady at 3.0% (1Y) and 2.9% (5Y) = Fed comfort zone
• Oil Rigs Dip Slightly:
  → Crude rigs fell from 425 → 422, total rigs up slightly
  → Energy production remains stable but not expanding
  → Reinforces supply glut seen in API/EIA builds earlier in week
• Market Read:
  → Equities held gains from Thursday’s retail and Philly Fed spike
  → Dollar and yields flat — no macro reason to unwind positions

✅ Final Macro Summary for July 18

“Housing bounced back and sentiment lifted — rounding out a week of quiet strength. Inflation expectations stable, rig count firm, and no negative macro shock. Markets ended the week with high conviction in the soft landing scenario.”

🟡 📅 Monday, July 22, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🟡 📅 Tuesday, July 23, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🟡 📅 Wednesday, July 24, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🔴 📅 Thursday, July 25, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🔴 📅 Friday, July 26, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🟡 📅 Monday, July 29, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🟡 📅 Tuesday, July 30, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

🔴 📅 Wednesday, July 31, 2025

🔵 Signal Bar Summary

Best Wishes and Success to All
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⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
📉 Macro data reflects positioning and economic conditions as of July 19 (published July 21)
✍️ Analyst: Titan Protect | Macro Pulse Division
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice.

📦 Weekly Reference Tag: ECON-W29-2025
📦 Daily Tag: ECON210725