🛡️ MACRO PULSE
Markets are attempting escape velocity, but compression hasn’t cleared across majors.
📅 Friday, July 18, 2025 | ⏰ 07:00 London BST / 02:00 New York EDT
📦 Status: Market floats higher — but compression remains. Retail leads, institutions still hedge.
🎯Executive Summary
The market got what it wanted:
Retail Sales beat.
Jobless Claims eased.
Crypto, Silver, Small Caps surged.
But there’s a problem — conviction hasn’t followed.
• SPX bounced, but still trapped under 6,320
• NDX leads, yet volume flow lags
• BTC breaks 120K — strongest structure today
• Silver remains sentiment’s favorite asset
• Crude rebounded — but it’s technical, not structural
• VIX dropped — but VVIX says hedging hasn’t stopped
We are in a mood-driven breakout — but not yet a flow-confirmed one.
📉 Titan Market Delta — July 18 vs July 17, 2025
🧭 Tactical 24h Change | Full Asset Flow Snapshot
| Ticker | Asset | Today | Yesterday | Δ Change | Tactical Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTCUSD | Bitcoin | 120,553.94 | 118,286.46 | +1.92% | 🟢 Breakout maintained — bullish flow regained |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ | 561.80 | 557.29 | +0.81% | 🟢 Tech ETFs floating — passive bid continues |
| NDX | Nasdaq 100 | 23,081.05 | 22,907.97 | +0.76% | 🟢 Tech rotation back — leadership returns |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | 628.04 | 624.22 | +0.61% | 🟢 Broad ETF push — structure still capped |
| SPX | S&P 500 Index | 6,297.36 | 6,263.70 | +0.54% | ⚖️ Still under 6,320 — compression easing |
| DJIA | Dow Index | 13,925.29 | 13,845.44 | +0.58% | ⚖️ Industrials lag tech — moderate catch-up |
| RTY | Russell 2000 | 2,265.20 | 2,225.00 | +1.81% | 🟢 Small caps rotate higher — risk-on pivot |
| DXY | Dollar Index | 98.616 | 98.280 | +0.34% | ⚠️ Rebound from base — still trapped |
| ES1! | S&P E-mini | 6,355.75 | 6,310.25 | +0.72% | 🟢 Futures leading — flow continuation watch |
| NQ1! | Nasdaq E-mini | 23,304.00 | 23,145.00 | +0.69% | 🟢 Futures confirm tech strength |
| SPX500USD | S&P Spot | 6,321.20 | 6,272.00 | +0.78% | 🟢 Compression breakout watch |
| NAS100USD | Nasdaq Index | 23,155.50 | 22,980.30 | +0.76% | 🟢 Momentum building — sentiment tailwind |
| WTICOUSD | Crude Oil | 67.647 | 66.414 | +1.86% | ⚠️ Rebound is technical — glut persists |
| XAGUSD | Silver | 38.1335 | 37.8774 | +0.68% | 🟢 Strongest structure — clean follow-through |
| XAUUSD | Gold | 3,334.65 | 3,335.67 | –0.03% | ⚖️ Flat — still DXY dependent |
| US10Y | U.S. 10Y Yield | 4.435% | 4.479% | –0.044% | 🔻 Minor fade — helps tech/metals |
| VX1! | VIX Futures (Front) | 19.250 | 19.200 | +0.26% | ⚠️ Still compressed — surface tension remains |
| VX2! | VIX Futures (2nd) | 20.770 | 20.700 | +0.34% | ⚠️ Hedge structure still intact |
| VIX | Vol Index | 16.51 | 17.15 | –3.73% | 🔻 Surface calm — trap potential rising |
| VVIX | Vol of Vol | 92.90 | 95.56 | –2.78% | 🔻 Quiet compression — but not broken |
📆 Locked Calendar Recap — July 01–18, 2025
🧮 Inflation & Labour
Jul 02 – ADP: –33K → ❗ Private sector crack
Jul 11 – NFP: +147K → ✅ Headline strength
Jul 15 – CPI: 2.7% YoY headline, 2.9% core → ⚠️ Sticky core
Jul 17 – Retail Sales: +0.6%, Jobless Claims: 221K → 🟢 Consumer strength
🧠 Takeaway: Disinflation confirmed. But market wants more proof to buy it.
🛢️ Energy Supply
Jul 09 – EIA Crude: +7.07M
Jul 15 – API Crude: +19.1M → 💥 Massive glut
Jul 17 – NatGas: +53Bcf
🧠 Interpretation: Oil rallies = bounce, not reversal. Inventories say otherwise.
🏛️ Policy Tone
Jul 16 – Beige Book: Neutral
Jul 17–18 – Williams, Waller, Kugler: Wait-and-see
→ Fed not dovish yet — but market acts like it is
🏭 Growth & Manufacturing
Jul 01 – ISM Mfg PMI: 49.0 → ⚠️ Still contraction
Jul 09 – Wholesale Inventories: –0.3% → 🧮 GDP drag
Jul 15 – Empire State: +5.5 → 🟢 Surprise — not trend
🔭 Forward Macro Risk Map — July 19–26
🗓️ Today – Jul 18
10:00 ET – NAHB Housing Index
16:30 ET – Fed Balance Sheet
18:30 ET – Fed Waller Speech
Impact: Weak housing = Gold bid, DXY fade
Hawkish Waller = SPX fade risk into Monday
🗓️ Next Week Highlights
| Day | Event | Titan Insight |
|---|---|---|
| Mon (22) | Quiet day | No catalysts — watch for Monday gap behavior |
| Tue (23) | S&P Global PMIs (Flash) | 💡 Q3 growth pulse |
| Wed (24) | New Home Sales + 2Y Auction | 🔍 Housing + short rates |
| Thu (25) | Durable Goods + Claims | ⚠️ Recession or resilience? |
| Fri (26) | Michigan Sentiment (Final) + 7Y Auction | 🧭 Inflation & demand view |
🧠 Macro Tone — July 01–18 Summary View
Signal | Direction | Bias |
Inflation | Cooling | 🔻 Disinflation confirmed, but not aggressive |
Labour | Mixed → Resilient | ⚖️ ADP weak, NFP and Claims supportive |
Energy | Oversupplied | 🔻 Structural downside for Crude |
Policy | Holding line | ⚠️ Cuts priced, but not endorsed |
Manufacturing | Stabilizing | ⚖️ Weak but not falling further |
🧭 Titan Flow Signal Map
| Asset | Bias | Zone | Flow Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | ✅ Bullish | >6,275 | First clean break in weeks — but still fragile |
| NDX | ⚠️ Neutral | 22,900–23,150 | Leadership strong, but yield sensitivity growing |
| BTC | 🟢 Strong | >120K | Breakout zone reclaimed |
| Gold | ⚖️ Flat | 3,340–3,375 | Needs DXY < 98.00 to unlock |
| Silver | 🟢 Strongest | >38.00 | Sentiment + structure aligned |
| Crude | 🔻 Weak | <67.00 | Still bearish despite short-covering |
| DXY | ⚠️ Fragile | 98.25–98.80 | Compression zone — bounce risk |
| VIX | 🔻 Calm | <17.00 | Vol trap if macro disappoints |
📊 Confidence Matrix
| Asset Pair | Confidence | Setup Insight |
|---|---|---|
| BTC + VVIX | 🟢 Strong | Crypto leads — vol divergence confirms |
| SPX + DXY | ⚖️ Mixed | SPX up, but DXY firming = hesitation |
| NDX + Bond Yields | ⚠️ Fragile | Tech needs bond follow-through |
| Crude + Yield Curve | 🔻 Weak | Oil rally lacks conviction — macro still bearish |
🧠 Macro Thesis
“This is a strong surface covering a fractured core.”
Markets are floating on data beats and disinflation — but institutional flow isn’t chasing.
Retail is leading. Fed isn’t confirming rate cuts.
Next week is the true test.
🎯 Titan Playbook
| Type | Setup Insight |
|---|---|
| Scalper | Fade SPX spikes below 6,320 if Waller turns hawkish |
| Intraday | Long BTC >120.5K |
| Swing | Long NDX if bond yields stay soft |
| Position | Stay light into PMIs & GDP |
📊 Conviction Recap for Week Start
• 🟢 High Confidence: Silver > 38, BTC > 120K
• ⚖️ Neutral Watch: SPX at 6,320 zone, NDX flow stalling
• 🔻 Avoid / Fade Bias: Crude < 67, VIX structure
→ Use Monday gaps + PMI tone to validate follow-through or fade.
📦 Final Outlook – Friday, July 18, 2025
We’ve finally seen a breakout — but without broad confirmation.
Silver and BTC lead cleanly.
SPX and NDX need next week’s macro to confirm.
Until then: enjoy the upside — but don’t mistake it for stability.
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
Titan Protect | Market Structure. Flow Intelligence. No Noise.
✍️ Analyst: Titan Protect | Economic Calendar Division
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice. Titan Protect does not offer financial services or broker recommendations.
