🛡️ Earning Echo
📆 Tuesday, July 08, 2025 | ⏰ 22:00 BST / 17:00 EDT
📦 Status: Compression persists. CPI failed to unlock flow. FOMC + Earnings now hold the torch.
🎯 Executive Summary
The CPI risk has passed — and the market did not choose a direction. SPX remains coiled above 6,200, while NDX remains capped under 22,800. The inflation print came in mixed: hot components (used cars, Redbook), but cooled expectations. That split defanged the CPI release as a breakout trigger.
Flow is diverging sharply:
Volatility compressed hard — but not evenly across the curve
DXY held the post-CPI bounce
Rates and equities sent mixed conviction signals
Breadth remains extremely narrow — and RTY outperformance lacks depth
Now the spotlight shifts to:
🧭 FOMC Minutes (Wed, 2PM NY) — policy tone + duration risk
💼 Earnings cluster (Thu: DAL, PGR, LEVI, CAG) — margin watch
⚠️ Vol curve imbalance — implies a risk of post-CPI “trap unwind”
📉 Macro + Flow Summary: July 08 Close
| Asset | Change | Tactical Takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| SPX | –0.07% | Held coil >6,200 — no conviction push |
| NDX | –0.30% | Still under 22,800 — flow bias remains lower |
| RTY | +0.97% | Small cap bid, but breadth is still constrained |
| BTC | +0.47% | Rangebound above 108K — flows still muted |
| GOLD | –1.04% | No macro hedge appetite — CPI failed to fuel bid |
| DXY | +0.55% | Bounce intact — bears trapped post-CPI |
| US10Y | +0.46% | Short-duration auctions supported |
| VIX | –5.62% | Surface vol crushed — short gamma risk building |
| VX2! | –2.08% | Still elevated — curve decompressing |
📌 Net Flow Read: CPI triggered short gamma unwind but not directional flow. Compression remains.
🔍 Key CPI-Linked Releases Recap
| Metric | Result | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| NFIB Business Optimism | 98.6 | 🔻 3rd sub-100 read — growth fragility |
| Redbook Retail YoY | +5.9% | 🔺 Consumer tape strong |
| Used Car Prices MoM / YoY | +1.6% / +6.3% | 🔥 High inflation components |
| Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3.0% | 🔻 Cooled from 3.2% — mixed signals |
| 3-Year Treasury Auction | 3.891% | 🔻 Strong demand — soft front-end |
| Crude API Stock Change | +0.68M | 🛢️ Reversal from drawdown — softens oil |
📅 Earnings Risk Outlook – Strategic Lens
| Day | Highlight Earnings | Strategic Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Wed | AZZ, Bassett, Methode | Industrial + margin tell |
| Thu | Delta (DAL), Progressive (PGR), Conagra (CAG), Levi’s (LEVI) | CPI-linked demand + pricing strength |
| Fri | DNB, Ryohin, Unity | Consumer + global retail confidence |
🔭 Thursday = Rotation Validator.
Hot CPI components don’t equal resilience — margin guidance will decide if equity positioning rotates, or fades.
🧭 Updated Tactical Positioning Map (Into FOMC)
| Asset | Price | Bias | Key Zone | Tactical Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 6,233.6 | ⚖️ Neutral | 6,200–6,275 | Coil still holds — no upside fuel yet |
| NDX | 22,736.6 | 🔻 Bearish | <22,800 | Flow capped — watch for breakdown bias |
| RTY | 2,230.4 | 🟢 Bullish | >2,200 | Relative strength — needs breadth |
| GOLD | 3,301.7 | 🔻 Bearish | <3,330 | Hedge bid absent — macro tone matters |
| DXY | 97.517 | 🟢 Bullish | >97.5 | CPI bounce held — watch FOMC for follow-up |
| VIX | 16.80 | ⚠️ Reactive | <18 | Surface calm hides deeper vol curve tension |
| VX2! | 19.82 | ⚠️ Risk | >20 | Curve decompressing again — risk remains |
🔁 Titan Playbook: Ahead of FOMC
| Trader Type | Opportunity Insight |
|---|---|
| Scalper | Fade SPX >6,275 on failed breakout |
| Intraday | NDX rejection below 22,800 → rotate into DXY |
| Swing | Long RTY if earnings confirm consumer rotation |
| Position | Wait for FOMC minutes + Thursday’s EPS clarity |
📌 Inflection Levels to Watch
SPX: 6,200–6,275 → ⚖️ Neutral coil still valid
NDX: <22,800 → 🔻 Active sell zone
DXY: >97.6 → 🟢 Bounce continues
GOLD: <3,300 → 🔻 No hedge interest
VX2!: >20 → ⚠️ Risk signal re-emerging
🧠 Final Tactical View
CPI offered heat — but no conviction.
Volatility has repriced, but not resolved.
Earnings and FOMC now take the baton.
Stay light. Stay sharp. Compression remains the trade until it’s not.
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
📉 Positioning data reflects markets as of July 08 (reported July 08)
📦 Daily Reference Tag: 17.POS.080725
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
