FTSE 100 (UK100) — Daily Read | Friday 15 May 2026
Friday close | FTSE closed before US sell-off landed | European session | Not financial advice
WHAT CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY
Yesterday FTSE closed at 10,373 (+0.46%), swept higher by the global CPI-driven risk-on wave. The short bias from Wednesday was cleared and the bigger uptrend reasserted itself. Today FTSE closed its own session before the worst of the US Retail Sales sell-off hit. The European close reflected early caution rather than the full US collapse. FTSE is estimated around 10,190-10,220 at Friday’s European close, with futures pointing lower into next week as the US tape filtered through. The CPI tailwind lasted exactly one session before the Retail Sales headwind arrived.
HEADLINE STATE: CAUTIOUS — European Session Closed Before Full US Damage, Futures Soft
FTSE’s timing means it absorbed the early session caution but not the afternoon US collapse. The real test for UK equities is Monday’s open, when the full impact of US SPY -1.20%, QQQ -1.51%, and IWM -2.41% flows through overnight futures. The FTSE had reclaimed the uptrend on Thursday. Whether that holds into Monday is the question that Friday’s European close cannot answer.
| Metric | Thu 14 May | Fri 15 May | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,373 (+0.46%) | ~10,200 (est) | Euro close pre-US damage |
| GBP/USD | 1.3445 | 1.3355 | Cable softer, FTSE hedged |
| US SPY | $748.10 (+0.78%) | $739.17 (-1.20%) | Hits FTSE Monday open |
| Bias | Uptrend resumed | Wait for Monday open | Key test incoming |
KEY LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK
- 10,373 — Thursday close and the level that confirmed the uptrend resumption. Monday open below this is a warning.
- 10,200 — estimated Friday European close. This is the immediate reference for Monday.
- 10,100 — first meaningful support if Monday extends the sell-off.
- 9,950-10,000 — the pre-CPI base. A move here means the entire week’s gains are erased.
OVERWATCH CONTEXT
The Overwatch noted gold’s -2.88% and silver’s -10.15% as inflation-exit signals on Friday. FTSE has meaningful exposure to commodity-linked names. When gold and silver sell this hard, FTSE’s miners and commodities weigh on the index. The FTSE faces a double pressure into Monday: US risk-off from Wall Street and commodity weakness from the metals complex. Sterling at 1.3355 provides a partial offset for the exporters. But the net picture is softer into next week.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
- Monday open gap versus Friday European close. The overnight futures gap tells you how much US damage passed through.
- UK data calendar next week for domestic catalysts to offset global risk-off.
- Gold recovery or further sell-off determines the miners component of FTSE.
- 10,100 is the line. Hold it on Monday and the FTSE uptrend is still alive.
Friday 15 May 2026 | Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.